53 Lakh people left the stock market in 9 months? Seriously?

Financial priorities significantly shifted during the lockdown, with more people re-evaluating their investments. Consequently, the stock market saw retail investors flocking in with high hopes of making humongous profits. Cut to a couple of years later, the National Stock Exchange (NSE) reported a whopping 53 lakh drop in active clients in the last nine months. What could’ve caused it?

So, what do the stats look like? So what are the numbers and statistics behind the decline in NSE users?

In March, the active client count on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) witnessed its ninth consecutive monthly decline, reaching 3.27 crore. This marked a significant decrease of 53 lakhs compared to the 3.8 crore investors recorded in June 2022.

What caused the decline in number of active traders?

While business had slowed down during the pandemic and work had taken a pause for a bit, people had ample amount of time in hand to research and build their portfolios. The return to work from office routine has reduced the amount of time and attention people have available for investing, leading to a decrease in trading activity.

Trading actively also requires a lot of research and analysis. With limited time after starting work from the office, this factor, too, would have demotivated the traders.
Due to this, there have been certain implications in the trading landscape. Trading volume and competition have decreased, and people are now focusing on long-term investments for stable growth. It has resulted in new opportunities for new traders.

People working from the office shouldn’t let their investments and trading take a back seat, as there are services like ready-made portfolios by Stoxbox that make management a lot simpler. With registered professionals curating tailored portfolios based on legitimate research, investors can sit back and relax and see their wealth grow.
Now the question is – should people endure the volatility of the stock market or move towards alternative investments? Well, the answer is not so simple. The decision depends on an individual’s risk tolerance, financial goals, and investment horizon. Let’s look at both situations in detail.

Alternate Forms of Investment:

Pros:

  1.  Portfolio Diversification: Investing in different asset classes (such as stocks, bonds, real estate, or commodities) can help reduce risk and the impact of volatility in a particular investment.
  2. Potential for higher returns: Some alternate forms of investment, such as high-growth stocks or emerging markets, may offer greater potential for higher returns compared to traditional investments.
  3. Hedging against inflation: Certain alternative investments, such as gold or real estate, can act as a hedge against inflation and preserve purchasing power.

Cons:

  1. Higher risk: Alternate forms of investment often come with higher risks due to factors like limited regulation, market unpredictability, and illiquidity. It’s important to thoroughly research and understand the risks associated with any investment before committing funds.
  2. Complexity: Many alternative investments require specialised knowledge or access to specific markets, making them more complex to understand and evaluate.

Enduring Volatility:

Pros:

  1. Long-term growth potential: Historically, markets have tended to recover from downturns and deliver long-term growth. By staying invested through periods of volatility, investors can benefit from market recoveries and potentially earn higher returns.
  2. Cost averaging: Volatility allows for opportunities to purchase assets at lower prices, potentially increasing overall returns when the market rebounds.
  3. Less need for active management: Choosing to endure volatility may suit investors who prefer a passive investment strategy, avoiding the need for frequent buying and selling decisions.

Cons:

  1. Emotional stress: Enduring market volatility requires a strong emotional mindset, as it can be stressful to witness fluctuations and potential temporary losses in investment values.
  2. Short-term losses: In the short term, volatility can result in portfolio losses, which may cause financial strain if funds are needed urgently.
  3.  Uncertainty and timing: It is challenging to predict market movements accurately. Remaining invested during periods of volatility means accepting the uncertainty of when the market will recover and potentially regain lost value.

Ultimately, individuals should carefully assess their financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment goals before deciding whether to explore alternative forms of investment or endure volatility. It’s advisable to consult with a financial advisor who can provide personalised guidance based on your specific circumstances or read more about the market. A mentor can offer valuable insights during such tricky situations.

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What went wrong with Adani stock? Why are all Adani Shares falling ?

Adani Group, one of India’s leading conglomerates, has faced a significant setback as money managers continue to reduce their holdings of Adani stocks, signalling persistent concerns over governance.

Despite a slight recovery from the initial sell-off, investments by local stock mutual funds in Adani Group accounted for only 0.9% of the sector’s $182 billion assets by the end of March, down from around 2% at the close of December.

In this article, we will explore the timeline of events surrounding Adani Group, examine why the market seems hesitant towards its stocks, and draw valuable lessons from their downfall.

Factors affecting Adani Stock Performance: 

Adani Group, headed by Gautam Adani, witnessed a tumultuous period that impacted their stock prices and investor sentiment. The decline in market confidence can be attributed to several key events, including:

  1. Controversial Carmichael Coal Mine: Adani Group’s proposed Carmichael Coal Mine in Australia faced opposition from environmentalists and activists concerned about its potential impact on the environment. These protests brought the company under intense scrutiny, leading to negative public sentiment. 
  2. The Hindenburg report: Adani Group has faced regulatory challenges and investigations, further denting investor confidence. US-based short seller Hindenburg published a report, which went public on January 24, and accused the Adani Group of “brazen stock manipulation and accounting fraud for decades”. It further said that Adani was involved in stock manipulation and fraud using shell companies.
  3. Bonds- Standard Chartered, following the footsteps of Credit Suisse and Citigroup, has decided to discontinue accepting Adani Group bonds as collateral for loans provided to their private banking clients. 

Credit Suisse had designated bonds issued by Adani Ports & Special Economic Zone, Adani Green Energy, and Adani Electricity Mumbai as having ‘zero lending value’ on February 1, coinciding with Adani Group’s cancellation of its share sale. Previously, Credit Suisse had assigned a lending value of approximately 75% to Adani Ports’ bonds. 

As a result, clients who had utilised Adani bonds as collateral were able to borrow up to 75% of the bonds’ worth. However, when a private bank reduces the lending value to zero, clients are required to provide additional cash or alternative collateral. Failure to meet these requirements may lead to the liquidation of their securities.

Why Doesn’t the Market Love Adani Stocks? 

  1. Governance Concerns: Adani Group’s governance practices have been a cause for concern among investors. Instances of alleged regulatory violations, lack of transparency, and related controversies have raised red flags, leading to a loss of confidence in the company’s management. 
  2. Uncertainty Surrounding Regulatory Environment: Regulatory scrutiny and investigations can create uncertainty in the market, making investors wary of potential legal and financial repercussions. Such uncertainty often translates into market disinterest and reduced investment in the affected stocks.
  3. Reputational Damage: Adani Group’s reputation has suffered due to controversies surrounding its projects and alleged violations. Negative public sentiment and reputational damage can impact investor confidence, making them hesitant to invest in the company’s stocks. 

The Key Lessons Behind Adani Stocks’ Downfall: 

  1. Thorough Research: The Adani Group’s decline serves as a reminder of the importance of thorough research before investing in any company. Investors should evaluate a company’s fundamentals, governance practices, and reputation to make informed decisions. 
  2. Consider Fundamentals: Assessing a company’s financial health, business model, and long-term prospects is crucial. Relying solely on market sentiment or short-term price movements may lead to unfavourable outcomes. ProTips by Stoxbox goes a long way to help traders understand when to buy, hold or sell. It is backed by strong fundamentals and research. 
  3. Governance and Transparency: Investors should prioritise companies with robust governance practices, transparent operations, and strong regulatory compliance. These factors are vital for sustainable growth and minimising the risk of unforeseen controversies. 

The market’s disinterest in Adani stocks serves as a cautionary tale for investors, emphasising the importance of thorough research, consideration of fundamental factors, and a focus on governance and transparency. By learning from the lessons behind Adani Group’s downfall, investors can make more informed decisions and navigate the market with greater confidence.

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How accurate is ChatGPT at predicting the stock market?

Introduction:

In a groundbreaking development this month, two studies showcased the prowess of Artificial Intelligence (AI) in the stock market. These studies utilised ChatGPT, an AI-powered chatbot, to perform tasks such as deciphering the sentiment of Federal Reserve remarks and determining whether stock-related news stories were favourable or unfavourable.

The successful completion of these tests indicates a potentially significant advancement in using technology to transform vast amounts of textual information into valuable trading signals.

This article explores the implications of this breakthrough and delves into the pros and cons of AI in stock market predictions.

How does AI make predictions?

Both studies leveraged ChatGPT, an AI model developed by OpenAI, to process and analyse various market-related texts, ranging from news articles to tweets and speeches. The chatbot demonstrated remarkable abilities in determining whether Federal Reserve remarks were hawkish or dovish, as well as identifying the sentiment behind stock-related news stories.

While similar language models have been utilised by quantitative analysts (quants) on Wall Street, the results indicate that OpenAI’s technology has achieved a new level of context and nuance processing.

Pros of AI in Stock Market Predictions:

  1. Enhanced Data Processing: AI algorithms, like ChatGPT, possess the capability to process vast amounts of textual data rapidly. This enables traders to analyse and interpret market-related information more efficiently, potentially uncovering hidden patterns and insights.
  2. Contextual Understanding: AI models, with their ability to comprehend context and nuance, can offer a deeper understanding of market sentiments. By analysing the sentiment behind news articles, speeches, and social media posts, AI can provide traders with valuable insights into market trends and investor sentiment.
  3. Objective Decision Making: AI-driven predictions can reduce human biases and emotions that often influence trading decisions. By relying on data-driven analysis, AI can provide more objective recommendations, potentially leading to more informed and disciplined trading strategies.

Cons of AI in Stock Market Predictions:

  1. Data Limitations: While AI algorithms excel at processing large volumes of data, they heavily rely on the quality and relevance of the data provided. Inaccurate or biased data can lead to flawed predictions.
  2. Black Box Nature: AI models, especially deep learning algorithms, often operate as “black boxes,” making it challenging to explain the reasoning behind their predictions. This lack of interpretability may raise concerns among traders and regulators who require transparency in decision-making processes.
  3. Risk of Overreliance: Depending solely on AI predictions without considering other fundamental and technical indicators can be risky. Market dynamics are complex and influenced by multiple factors, including economic conditions, geopolitical events, and investor behaviour. AI should be viewed as a tool that complements traders’ expertise rather than a substitute for thorough analysis.

Can AI Help Traders?

The use of AI, such as ChatGPT, in stock market predictions holds great potential. By leveraging advanced natural language processing and machine learning techniques, AI can augment traders’ decision-making processes.

However, it is important to recognise that AI is not foolproof and should be used as part of a comprehensive trading strategy. Human intuition, domain expertise, and critical thinking remain invaluable assets in the dynamic and ever-evolving world of finance.

Stoxbox doesn’t use AI. It is backed by strong fundamentals and experts’ research that can be relied upon. Check out the Pro Tips and Mentor Box section to get inputs on when to buy, hold and sell.

AI should be balanced with human judgement and a comprehensive understanding of market dynamics.

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All You Must Know About the Fundamental Approach to Investing

All You Must Know About the Fundamental Approach to Investing Take a look around yourself – what are the fundamental or core aspects that define you as a person? Is it your educational qualification, which enables you to take up a job you enjoy? Is it the books you read or the shows you binge watch? Maybe it is the cuisine you consider comfort food. Or the memorabilia you collect when on a trip. There are so many fundamental ideas that you carry with yourself in this journey called life. They mould the way you perceive the world, while also helping people gain a perception of who you are. Just as these fundamentals form your identity, there are some fundamental elements which define a strong investing strategy. What is fundamental investing? The fundamental approach to investing involves picking stocks based on the intrinsic value of the underlying company. When considering fundamental stock ideas, you must remember that while many factors can impact the price of a stock, one of the most crucial factors is the fundamental status of the company. Fundamental analysis involves the process of measuring the intrinsic value of a stock to decipher whether your pick is valued fairly and correctly. You can undertake fundamental analysis by studying the company’s financial statements, valuation ratio, and other qualitative metrics, while also keeping an eye on the management structure and macro aspects such as the industry outlook and government policies. When picking a stock to invest in, it is important to know these underlying fundamental aspects, as these help you gain an idea about how the stock will perform over the longer-term. For instance, you may consider investing in a stock that is in the news for its high quarterly earnings. But, is that enough? What if the profit margin is high because the base was low last year? Will the stock manage to hold on to its gains if the management structure is not stable? How will the rise in inflation, or the repo rate, affect the stock’s future? These are basic questions which will help you ascertain the stock’s underlying fundamentals and, thereby, its fair value. Approaches to fundamental investing While choosing your fundamental stock ideas, consider three broad metrics – company-specific aspects, industry, and the overall economy. If even one of these factors fail you, the stock may end up losing value. While analysing these three metrics, you must keep an eye on both qualitative and quantitative factors. Qualitative factors include intangibles like the quality and stability of the management, market reputation, business model, corporate governance, etc. Quantitative factors can be measured through data and consist of aspects such as financial statements, competition, market penetration, industry growth, etc. Deep research and thorough analysis of these aspects will help you decode your fundamental stock ideas and help you position yourself for long-term profit. Investor Forecast – Benefits and Disadvantages
So, should you choose fundamental investing while creating your portfolio? Here is a comprehensive list of the benefits and disadvantages of the practice to help you decide. The first benefit of picking fundamental stock ideas is that it helps you eliminate bias when making investment decisions. Once you follow the parameters, you will only invest in stocks that live up to the hype. Secondly, the combination of qualitative and quantitative analysis ensures that you have the complete picture – of the company’s performance, as well as the sectoral and macro-economic factors impacting its future outlook. This helps you make more informed decisions based on logic and reasoning. Fundamental analysis also enables you to pick high potential stocks for longer-term investment, helping you grow your wealth sustainably. While there are no risks to fundamental investing, a major disadvantage here is the need for extensive research and analysis. This makes fundamental investing time-consuming and complicated. If you are not a seasoned investor with a keen eye for the fundamentals, you could end up being confused by the many factors that need to be analysed. Further, many a times, the qualitative fundamentals can be very subjective, and you may find yourself unsure about the actual value of the stock pick. These disadvantages make investors vary of the approach and they end up not following it properly. Considering the various benefits inherent in the fundamental approach to investing, it is one of the essential aspects to consider while building your portfolio. However, if you are not keen on undertaking voluminous research or finding fundamental stock picks from the vast ocean of listed companies, worry not. You can simply choose to invest in curated portfolios which follow the fundamental approach and benefit from the expertise and experience offered by professional fund managers.
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All About ETFs in India

In the times of YOLO, POV, FOMO, LOL, and many more, one more new-age abbreviation deserves to get your attention and a place in your everyday life. Short for an Exchange Traded Fund, an ETF is one of the relatively newer investment options in the market. Is it worth investing in an ETF in India or not is something that may have crossed your mind and something that we are going to address today. But before we dive into ETFs and their characteristics, let’s first understand why it is crucial to invest your money anyway. Savings and investments – why are they such a big deal?  The short answer is wealth creation. Your salary can only get you so far. The rest of the gap can be covered with disciplined savings and investments. By investing your money, you allow it to multiply and grow over time. You also save it from getting robbed by inflation, which can eventually render your savings less valuable. However, being a young, independent individual translates to a hectic schedule in today’s times. This probably means you may not always have the time to invest in options like direct equities, where you have to build your portfolio yourself, time the market, and devise exit strategies. This is where ETFs come in as the ideal investment option. What are ETFs? ETFs are like a big hamper of different securities, including stocks, bonds, and commodities that tracks an underlying index. This means that an ETF follows a benchmark index and tries to replicate its performance. An ETF in India is a combination of a stock and a mutual fund. It is traded on the stock exchanges like stocks. It is also highly liquid like shares and can be bought and sold throughout the day. This means you can buy and sell units of ETFs from the stock market anytime you want. Further, it pools money from different investors, as in the case of mutual funds. The fund manager invests your money further, and the profits are given back to you as returns. ETFs also have a Net Asset Value (NAV) like mutual funds. Some ETF examples in India include the Nippon ETF Nifty BeES, LIC MF ETF – CNX Nifty 50, and ICICI Prudential Nifty ETF, among several others. [SS1] There are also different types of ETFs like equity ETFs, gold ETFs, bond ETFs, and international ETFs. You can invest in any of these based on your financial goals. The past, present, and future of ETFs The Nifty Benchmark Exchange-Traded Scheme (Nifty BeES) was the first-ever ETF in India introduced in 2001. It was offered by the Benchmark Mutual Fund. This was followed by Liquid BeES in 2004, the first debt ETF in the country. However, ETFs really thrived after the economic crisis of 2008 that engulfed the world. ETFs presented investors with comparatively more security and thus appealed to beginners and experts alike. According to AMFI, asset under management (AUM) for ETFs grew by 1345.77% between 2015 and 2020 in the country1. There was a further increase of 136% in ETF AUM between 2020 and 2022, stated a survey report by Morningstar India2. These rising numbers are testament to the fact that ETFs are attracting many investors and are indeed here to stay. ETF benefits Here are some ETF benefits that can help you make the decision to invest in them:
  •  ETFs offer a lot of convenience: They are passively managed by a fund manager, so the burden to manage your investment and time the market is off you.
  •  ETFs are highly liquid: ETFs can be bought and sold at any time of the day. They are ideal if you are in a financial emergency and need immediate funds.
  •   ETFs can help you lower portfolio risk: You can take care of your portfolio’s diversification needs by adding ETFs. ETFs are great at diversification. However, keep in mind that they are still susceptible to market volatility.
  •  ETFs may have a lower expense ratio: ETFs can be a cost-effective investment option with lower expense ratios than most mutual funds.
ETF taxation  To understand ETF taxation, you first need to know that there are two types of incomes that you can earn from investing in an ETF in India – a dividend and a capital gain. Here’s how each of these is taxed:
  • Dividends: Any dividend earned is added to your taxable income for the year and taxed per the tax slab you fall into.
  •  Capital gains: Capital gains are taxed according to the type and duration of the fund. Equity ETFs are levied long term capital gains (LTCG) tax on earnings in excess of Rs. 1 lakh per annum at the rate of 10% for funds held for longer than a year. Short term capital gains (STCG) on equity ETFs are taxed at 15% for funds held for a year or less.
  • All other ETFs like debt, gold, etc., are taxed like debt funds. LTCG for funds held for longer than three years are taxed at 20% with indexation benefits. STCG tax is levied on profits from funds held for three years or less. Like dividends, these earnings are added to your taxable income for the year and taxed accordingly.
To sum it up With the increasing popularity of ETFs, this can be a great time to take advantage of the many ETF benefits and create wealth for your future goals. Investing in an ETF in India can be suitable for all types of investors. However, beginners can particularly benefit from them because of the added convenience and high liquidity. So, what are you waiting for?
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